Tuesday, July 5, 2022
  • Login
Upgrade
The Southern African Times
  • Home
  • Southern Africa
  • Global
  • Business
    • African Start ups
    • African Continental Free Trade Area
  • Tech
  • Opinion
  • Sports
  • Lifestyle
    • Health
    • Culture
    • Food and Drink
    • Entertainment
  • SAT Jobs
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Southern Africa
  • Global
  • Business
    • African Start ups
    • African Continental Free Trade Area
  • Tech
  • Opinion
  • Sports
  • Lifestyle
    • Health
    • Culture
    • Food and Drink
    • Entertainment
  • SAT Jobs
No Result
View All Result
The Southern African Times
No Result
View All Result
Home Opinion

Ukraine conflict: What are the chances of a peace deal?

by SAT Reporter
March 30, 2022
in International news, Opinion, World
0
Ukraine conflict: What are the chances of a peace deal?
0
VIEWS

Russia and Ukraine could soon make a deal that will end the conflict that erupted on February 24. But without achieving its political and military goals in the Eastern European country, any agreement that Moscow may sign with Kyiv will be interpreted as a sign of Russian weakness.

On March 29, Russian and Ukrainian representatives held another round of talks in Istanbul. As a result, the Russian Defense Ministry announced its decision to “fundamentally cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernigiv” in order to “increase mutual trust for future negotiations to agree and sign a peace deal with Ukraine.” Does that mean that the Kremlin has given up its plans to demilitarize and denazify the former Soviet republic?

According to the Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov, denazification remains one of the crucial goals of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, for his part, claims that “the combat potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was significantly reduced, the Air Force and Air Defense of Ukraine were practically destroyed, and its Navy ceased to exist.” Such a statement gives the Kremlin room for various political maneuvers. It would not be improbable for Moscow to soon declare that it achieved the major military goals of its special operation in Ukraine.

In reality, however, without a pro-Russian government in Kyiv, the Eastern European nation will remain in the Western geopolitical orbit, and will continue developing close ties with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

The West will see any unilateral concessions to Kyiv as a Russian defeat. Moreover, even if Russia and Ukraine soon sign a peace deal, the West will not lift sanctions it imposed on Moscow. Thus, from the Russian perspective, a potential agreement with Ukraine, under the current circumstances, would mean Russia’s de facto capitulation. Such a move would have extremely negative consequences for the very future of the Russian Federation.

Kyiv, on the other hand, seeks “security guarantees that are stronger than NATO’s Article 5,” David Arakhamia, head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s party in parliament, said on March 29, which means that Ukraine wants to make sure that next time Russia has to fight against both the Eastern European nation and NATO. Thus, the two countries will unlikely truly normalize their relations any time soon.

If Moscow and Kyiv sign a deal in the near future, it may be just a truce, no matter how they formulate it. Given that Minsk Ⅰ and Minsk II agreements have not brought peace to the Donbas, but have led to the escalation instead, it seems unlikely that a potential “Minks Ⅲ” – be it signed in Istanbul or elsewhere – would have a significantly positive impact.

A possible deal between Moscow and Kyiv would allow the West to increase its influence in the Eastern European country. NATO officials have already pointed out that they will continue supplying weapons to Ukraine. Thus, if the Kremlin agrees to end its special military operation, it will only sweep the Ukraine issue under the carpet.

Ramazan Kadyrov, the head of the Chechen Republic, seems to be quite aware that such a scenario will bring nothing good to the Russian Federation. That is why he firmly opposed any negotiations with Kyiv, and stressed that Russia needs to “completely finish what it started.”

The problem, however, is that the West will unlikely allow Russia to preserve control over the territories in southern and eastern Ukraine. NATO will make sure that the Ukrainian army regroups, consolidates and gradually recaptures cities that are currently under Russian control. More importantly, Russia’s decision to cut back military activities around Kyiv could have negative consequences for Russian troops in other parts of Ukraine. The Kremlin has sent a message that Russian forces are not in Ukraine to stay. The local authorities in Ukrainian cities that are under Russian control will now unlikely dare to cooperate with the Russian army. They will wait for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to return instead.

One thing is for sure: In order to achieve its political and military goals in Ukraine, the Kremlin will have to change its strategy.

Tags: PandemicPremiumStay HomeWuhan
Previous Post

What Your Legs Could Be Telling You About Your Heart Health

Next Post

South African anti-immigration vigilante leader granted bail

SAT Reporter

Related Posts

Johnson and Blinken need to wake up from their colonial illusion
Opinion

Johnson and Blinken need to wake up from their colonial illusion

by SAT Reporter
July 4, 2022
Africa builds an integrated energy economy
Opinion

Africa builds an integrated energy economy

by SAT Reporter
July 4, 2022
African-born German lawmakers bring new perspectives to country’s politics
International news

African-born German lawmakers bring new perspectives to country’s politics

by SAT Reporter
June 28, 2022
UK appoints new trade commissioner to lead UK-Africa trade and investment relationship
International news

UK appoints new trade commissioner to lead UK-Africa trade and investment relationship

by SAT Reporter
June 28, 2022
Colonialism is not dead, Your Royal Highness
Opinion

Colonialism is not dead, Your Royal Highness

by SAT Reporter
June 28, 2022
Next Post
South African anti-immigration vigilante leader granted bail

South African anti-immigration vigilante leader granted bail

Premium Content

Impact Oil & Gas prepares to sell stake in Namibian offshore block – sources

Impact Oil & Gas prepares to sell stake in Namibian offshore block – sources

June 6, 2022
Can Made in Africa transform the continent’s leather industry?

Can Made in Africa transform the continent’s leather industry?

January 31, 2021
Angola gov’t invests 600 mln USD in power generation

Angola gov’t invests 600 mln USD in power generation

August 19, 2021

Browse by Category

  • African Continental Free Trade Area
  • African Start ups
  • Algeria
  • Analysis
  • Angola
  • Asia
  • BOTSWANA
  • Botswana
  • Burkina Faso
  • Burundi
  • Business
  • Business
  • Cameroon
  • Central Africa
  • China
  • Climate Change
  • Climate Changev
  • Congo Republic
  • COVID 19
  • Culture
  • Democratic Republic of Congo
  • Eastern Africa
  • Egypt
  • Entertainment
  • Environment
  • Ethiopia
  • Europe
  • Fashion
  • Finance
  • Food
  • Food and Drink
  • Foods
  • Ghana
  • Global
  • Guinea
  • Health
  • Immigration
  • in Southern Africa
  • International news
  • Just In
  • Kenya
  • Lesotho
  • Libya
  • Life Style
  • Lifestyle
  • Malawi
  • Malawi
  • Mali
  • Markets
  • Middle East
  • Mozambique
  • Namibia
  • Nigeria
  • North Africa
  • Opinion
  • Politics
  • Rwanda
  • Senegal
  • Seychelles
  • South Africa
  • South Sudan
  • Sports
  • Startup Africa
  • STOCK EXCHANGE
  • Tanzania
  • Tech
  • Togo
  • Travel
  • Travel
  • Tunisia
  • Uganda
  • Uncategorized
  • West Africa
  • World
  • World
  • ZAMBIA
  • Zambia
  • ZIMBABWE
  • Zimbabwe

Browse by Tags

africa African business news Africa New Africa News african footballer African investments African manufacturing industry african markets African news African start-up banking Business China Classic Content currency Explore Bali Finance football Life Style Markets Market Stories Namibia news Nigeria oil and gas Oilandgas Opinion Pandemic Politics Premium reserve bank of Zambia Russia South Africa Southern African News sports Stay Home Travel United Stated Vaccine Work From Home Wuhan Zambia Zimbabwe Zimbabwe Harare Manufacturing Africa Employment creationn

WHO WE ARE

The Southern African Times is a regional bloc digital newspaper that covers Southern African and the world news. The paper also gives a nuanced analysis on news and covers a wide range of reporting which include sports, entertainment, foreign affairs, arts and culture.

Facebook Twitter Youtube Instagram Rss

Copyright © 2022 The Southern African Times | Powered by The Southern African Times

Privacy Policy

Terms and Conditions

  • Home
  • Southern Africa
  • Global
  • Business
    • African Start ups
    • African Continental Free Trade Area
  • Tech
  • Opinion
  • Sports
  • Lifestyle
    • Health
    • Culture
    • Food and Drink
    • Entertainment
  • SAT Jobs

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
Are you sure want to unlock this post?
Unlock left : 0
Are you sure want to cancel subscription?